Three investment banks have taken a negative stance on First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR), the 2nd largest solar console manufacturer by chapters, and the showtime by market cap and profit.

Equity analysts at JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) lowered their price target on shares of Showtime Solar to $105.00 in a research annotation to investors on Fri.  JPMorgan believes the business firm volition have to lower module prices considering of aggressive competition.

Analysts at Citigroup (NYSE: C) cutting their cost target on Commencement Solar shares from $150.00 to $130.00 in a research notation to investors last week. They accept a "hold" rating on the stock.

And analysts at Maxim Group initiated coverage on First Solar in a research note on Th with a "sell" rating and an $85.00 price target on the stock.

Proverb saw "long-term earnings under threat in a $i.00 per watt" solar panel world, saying that this pricing has accelerated the maturity of the solar industry and "threatens First Solar'south competitive advantage and LT EPS power." Maxim added: "While FSLR rode the lowest costs in the industry to a leading market share, a drib in silicon costs has enabled c-Si prices to fall to levels that have dramatically narrowed FSLR's toll advantage."

Maxim sees 2011 EPS guidance at risk and earnings ability inflated by high-priced PPA contracts that volition soon give way to "normalized PPA prices" of $0.12 per kilowatt-60 minutes. Maxim estimates "external ASPs of $0.78 per watt, cost per watt of $0.57, full gross margin of 32 pct, and EPS of $8.65 by 2014."

First Solar last announced its quarterly results in early May, reporting $one.33 earnings per share for the previous quarter with apartment revenue from quarter to quarter.

"Despite European marketplace uncertainties, First Solar has skilful visibility into our demand for 2011," said Rob Gillette, the CEO of Start Solar, at the near recent earnings call.

In an article nosotros published nearly a year agone, "Why I Am Curt Outset Solar," John Hempton of Bronte Capital made the following points:

  • Showtime Solar is a company that improved the globe. It has driven the price of solar cell production to quite low levels and made utility-calibration solar farms feasible with simply modest subsidies. There are some places where solar is now viable without subsidies. We can think of few other companies that have pushed a technology so far and with such loftier environmental benefits. Companies like this will allow us to maintain a modern lifestyle while addressing greenhouse emissions issues.
  • Still, for all the benefits of Offset Solar's cells, they are inferior in many of import ways to a polycrystalline cell. Their efficiency is lower -- which ways you do not become as much solar energy off the constrained roof infinite. Secondly, while they salve a lot on the semiconductor part of the manufacturing procedure, they have to utilise more than glass, more wires, etc., to generate the same amount of solar electricity. Each cell generates less electricity, as well, so inverters, connectors, and installations all cost more with thin moving-picture show. Sparse film also degrades over time. Starting time Solar warrants their functioning over their lifetime -- simply with the warranty bookkeeping for lower levels of performance in the second decade of operation (google 'Staebler-Wronski result' for a non-trivial caption). Thin film does, however, accept some advantages in low calorie-free, such equally the ability to retain a slightly greater proportion of their peak capacity.
  • There is a distinct possibility that Get-go Solar's business concern volition neglect in the same fashion that Palm's or Garmin'due south has. It won't be fair -- but fairness has nothing to do with it. Like Garmin, First Solar probably won't become bust because it has a billion dollars in liquid assets on the rest canvass -- assets which correspond past profits.
  • This company is a technological wonder. Glass goes in on one finish of the manufacturing procedure and comes out as solar cells at the other with adjacent to no human intervention. Labor is used just when it comes to putting frames around the drinking glass and for like tasks.
  • To recap, in order to make money in technology, you lot need to practise ii things. First, y'all need to change the world (which Start Solar clearly did), and second, you demand to keep the competition out. Alas, very few businesses manage the second pull a fast one on.
  • First Solar'southward advantage is entirely dependent on the fact that they utilize much less semiconductor cloth than wafers -- an advantage that disappears entirely as wafer prices fall. At that point, all of First Solar'due south many disadvantages volition begin to shine through. If that happens, Starting time Solar is toast. It probably won't file bankruptcy, because it has so much in past profits to fall back on, but it will exist as as obsolete as a Palm organizer is at present or every bit a Garmin machine-based navigation system might be in five years.

The future holds the potential for a bloody cost war between Suntech (STP), Yingli (YGE), SunPower (SPWRA), and other silicon solar vendors. Showtime Solar, despite its technology reward, will eventually be fatigued into that fray.  And information technology will become especially interesting when the likes of GE, Samsung, AU Optronics, and Solar Frontier brand their full-scale archway.

Tin First Solar'due south margins remain strong even with PPA pricing at $0.x per kilowatt-60 minutes?  Perhaps -- if the company executes on its long-term cost-reduction roadmap.

Kickoff Solar'south stock is currently trading at $116.56, downwardly iv.81 percent, with a market capitalization of $x.04 billion.